🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."